Decision By Objectives - How to Convinces Others That You Are Right

In this contemplation associated with a management process, I can say I have a lack of experience in executing decision especially  in Crucial Decision Area. I often feel there is something wrong or something not fit yet when I have to decided. As a result I usually feel comfortable to make many scenario with all of its detail but when I face off the compulsion to take a decision/judgment, I have an adversity in it. So I think it is my weakness that to be improved.

At first I have a slightly confused with the starting point to do it. I've known many popular decision making techniques tool both of quantitative and qualitative methods in management. But I think I need something more praticed related with it.

He Is Lord - Hillsong

                                

This song is really inspired ....!!!

Stop Looking Beyond My Craetor

I just came across this quotable quote while reading today.

You can't go on 'seeing through' things forever. The whole point of seeing through something is to see something through it... If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.

It made a whole lot of sense to me. Some people try to look beyond an issue, and go too far only to find nothing of use or benefit to its existence. Some people seek to change something, but in fact, what he seeks to change is nothing. This nothing-ness can't be changed, and the scary part is, this dis-illusion sometimes can't be corrected either.

So a balance between the simple and the abstract is often needed.

With age, abstraction and complexity often attracts man, but is as often not needed. Simple things done simply can yield as good a result and if not better and in a shorter time. I need to remember that. Perfection sometimes can be so far away that the process of attaining it becomes so confusingly imperfect. Maybe its not just age... its a whole load of pride and a foggy experience of reality...

Some people look through creation and see God... Many try to look beyond God and find theory... Maybe if they looked deeper... they'd find emotion and raw unbelief...

I choose to stop looking beyond my Creator... I don't see how I could ever understand as much as what the Creator of the universe does.

My Confession About Happiness

"Happiness is as a butterfly which, when pursued is always beyond our grasp, but which if you will sit down quietly, may alight upon you."

In the end of my ordianry day, I've something crossed in my mind said: 'Should our happiness is absolutely determined by our plan for our own ultimate goal, our success?' And my first response to it "NO"..."But why?"...I've wondered.

I am sure some of you might not agree with me... but I am not saying that you should not plan for your future to be successful or to become wealthy, what I am trying to say is that even though you are successful or wealthy (now or in the future), there is no guarantee that you will be happy!

Get The Early: Seeing The Future to Compete In The Present

FREE EXCERPT: Get There Early: Seeing the Future to Compete in the Present

It’s a guidebook for what’s going to be, for the future that is really not optional — the VUCA world of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Because it will give you an entirely new angle on how to approach your job as a business leader in this VUCA world. Bob Johansen has created a book that is exceptional in its originality and clarity of expression as well as in its effective blending of theory and practical examples.

But you may well ask: “Can I really do the things described in this book and make a difference in my business?” From personal experience, It can again say resoundingly, YES. We all need a better way to engage with the dilemmas that are increasingly apparent all around us. This book provides that better way.

 

An excerpt from

Get There Early:

Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present

by Bob Johansen

Published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers

Eternity by Yuriko Nakamura

One of my favorite contemplative piano play to accompany my serenity time....hopedully you can enjoy it too...!!

Why Our Brains Do Not Intuitively Grasp Probabilities

Have you ever gone to the phone to call a friend only to have your friend ring you first? What are the odds of that? Not high, to be sure, but the sum of all probabilities equals one. Given enough opportunities, outlier anomalies—even seeming miracles—will occasionally happen.

Let us define a miracle as an event with million-to-one odds of occurring (intuitively, that seems rare enough to earn the moniker). Let us also assign a number of one bit per second to the data that flow into our senses as we go about our day and assume that we are awake for 12 hours a day. We get 43,200 bits of data a day, or 1.296 million a month. Even assuming that 99.999 percent of these bits are totally meaningless (and so we filter them out or forget them entirely), that still leaves 1.3 “miracles” a month, or 15.5 miracles a year.

Thanks to our confirmation bias, in which we look for and find confirmatory evidence for what we already believe and ignore or discount contradictory evidence, we will remember only those few astonishing coincidences and forget the vast sea of meaningless data.

We can employ a similar back-of-the-envelope calculation to explain death premonition dreams. The average person has about five dreams a night, or 1,825 dreams a year. If we remember only a tenth of our dreams, then we recall 182.5 dreams a year. There are 300 million Americans, who thus produce 54.7 billion remembered dreams a year. Sociologists tell us that each of us knows about 150 people fairly well, thus producing a social-network grid of 45 billion personal relationship connections. With an annual death rate of 2.4 million Americans, it is inevitable that some of those 54.7 billion remembered dreams will be about some of these 2.4 million deaths among the 300 million Americans and their 45 billion relationship connections. In fact, it would be a miracle if some death premonition dreams did not happen to come true!

Debt Elimination: Managing It Through Turbulent Times

 

Debt is a tool that must be smartly managed. Getting on top of it is the single most important financial step you can take. Here's how to do it.

The Business Cycle

To explore the fundamentals behind the historic, destructive forces wreaking havoc upon individuals, businesses and governments alike, one must understand the term business cycle. The business cycle is a characterization of the direction of economic activity within a broader economy. The five stages are as follows: expansion, peak, recession, trough, and recovery. According to Investopedia.com, the average post-World War II expansion has lasted 50 months, while the average contraction has been just eleven months.

During expansions, individuals, governments and businesses typically finance growth through the acquisition of significant amounts of additional debt. During contractions, the same parties attempt to reduce debt in order to mitigate uncertain or declining revenues. Needless to say, the former is far easier to accomplish than the later.

Finally Avatar II's Trailer has been released, can't wait this show on cineplex...

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model

How you go about making a decision can involve as many choices as the decision itself. Sometimes you have to take charge and decide what to do on your own. Other times its better to make a decision using group consensus. How do you decide which approach to use?

Making good decisions is one of the main leadership tasks. Part of doing this is determining the most efficient and effective means of reaching the decision.

You don't want to make autocratic decisions when team acceptance is crucial for a successful outcome. Nor do you want be involving your team in every decision you make, because that is an ineffective use of time and resources. What this means is you have to adapt your leadership style to the situation and decision you are facing. Autocratic styles work some of the time, highly participative styles work at other times, and various combinations of the two work best in the times in between.

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model provides a useful framework for identifying the best leadership style to adopt for the situation you're in.

Note:
This model was originally described by Victor Vroom and Philip Yetton in their 1973 book titled Leadership and Decision Making. Later in 1988, Vroom and Arthur Jago, replaced the decision tree system of the original model with an expert system based on mathematics. Hence you will see the model called Vroom-Yetton, Vroom-Jago, and Vroom-Yetton-Jago. The model here is based on the Vroom-Jago version of the model.

The Face of Contradiction

" Sebuah piano umumnya memiliki dua warna tuts, satu berwarna putih dan satu lagi berwarna hitam. Sebuah komposisi lagu bisa dimainkan hanya dengan salah satu warna tus tersebut, namun kebanyakan komposisi yang indah memainkan keduanya sehingga terciptalah lantunan nada yang harmonis."

 "Kontradiksi"....sebuah istilah yang sangat dijauhi oleh para saintis sejak dahulu kala. Sebuah teori dikatakan elegan, indah, dan bagus adalah teori yang sama sekali tidak memiliki kontradiksi di dalamnya....mulai dari jamannya Anaxigoras sampai ke jamannya Imanuel Kant, dari Archimedes sampai ke Karl Marx....sepanjang era perkembangan metode ilmiah dalam konstruksi sebuah teori, sangat dihindari yang namanya "Kontradiksi".

Sederhananya kontradiksi adalah ketidakkonsistenan dari sebuah teori/postulat. Menurut wikipedia hukum kontradiksi adalah:

"Hukum kontradiksi atau principium contradictionis (Bahasa Inggris: law of contradiction) adalah aturan yang menyatakan bahwa tidak mungkin sesuatu itu pada waktu yang sama adalah sesuatu itu dan bukan sesuatu itu. Maksudnya: mustahil sesuatu itu adalah hal satu dan bertentangan pada waktu yang bersamaan."