Sepotong Roti Manis dan Nikmat - Sebuah Kisah

Bob Butler kehilangan kedua kakinya pada tahun 1965 akibat ledakan ranjau di Vietnam. Ia kembali ke negerinya sebagai pahlawan perang. Dua puluh tahun kemudian dia sekali lagi membuktikan kepahlawanan yang murni berasal dari lubuk hatinya.

Butler sedang bekerja di garasi rumahnya di sebuah kota kecil di Arizona pada suatu Hari dalam musim panas ketika dia mendengar jeritan seorang wanita dari salah satu rumah tetangganya. Ia menggelindingkan kursi rodanya ke rumah ini, tetapi semak-semak yang tinggi di rumah itu tidak memungkinkan kursi rodanya mencapai pintu belakang. Maka veteran itu keluar dari kursinya Dan merangkak tanpa peduli debu Dan semak yang harus dilewatinya.

Matrix Mapping: the easiest and best way to map internal controls

 

Stop and check!

The most common format for documenting internal controls (i.e. format for "control matrices") takes far too long to write and produces huge documents of little practical use. It's so inefficient that people naturally cut corners, giving a distorted view of controls and risk. I should know; I made the wrong choice myself once. Never again!

If your company has documented its internal controls using some kind of matrices or has to do so in future it is well worth getting the right format in place. This is one of those details that makes a huge difference. If you already have matrices check them and, if they are the wrong style, plan to reformat them as soon as possible. If you have still to start them or have just started a project to write control matrices, stop, check, and restart your project using the right style of matrix. If you don't you will regret it later.

Wrong and right formats

The format most people think of first when asked to map internal controls to risks is the obvious one: a list of risks, with controls written against each risk to show the risk is covered. The layout is some variation on the one below, with other columns added for extra information and cross referencing:

Risk/control objective	Controls
Risk A	Controls addressing risk A
Risk B	Controls addressing risk B
Risk C	Controls addressing risk C
Risk D	Controls addressing risk D
etc	etc

At first glance this seems sensible and there is no obvious objection in principle. However, this is a disastrous choice. If the format your company uses, or plans to use, is like this then read on.

A vastly superior format is to list controls down the left hand column, and risks across the column headings, then mark off where controls address risks within a matrix of small cells, like this:

Control	Risk A	Risk B	Risk C	Risk D	etc
Control 1		1	1
Control 2			1		1
Control 3	1				1
Control 4			1	1	1
etc

In this example, Risk A is covered by Control 3 only. Risk B is covered by Control 1 only. Risk C is covered by Controls 1, 2, and 4. And so on.

At first glance this seems unpromising. Surely there will be lots of wasted space? Won't the column headings be difficult to read? What if there are too many risks to fit across the page?

All these are minor issues whose impact can be minimised, and they are insignificant next to the hidden drawbacks of the more obvious approach. The next section looks in more detail at the advantages and disadvantages of each type.

Shocked by the possibility of centralized AI

Two figures above is comparing Human Synapse activity with Internet activity. And the result shows surprising similarity....

At the first, I've not surprised with the figure...but when I began to continue tracking in my mind, I've found something ineterest that could't make me stop thinking about it. In fact I knew the similarity since a few years back. I've known it but never try to think it more.

Without any reason, I figured :" Yeah...it's possible if our brain neural network be the same as internet traffic visualization since neurons, or nerve cells, each have a pair of projections—the axon and the dendrite, which transmit and receive impulses, respectively. On the other hand the internet especially in P2P sharing have Client Servers and each have pair of projections - the suppliers and the consumers of resources. Yap, it was a suitable analogy...I thought.

But....suddenly, without any reason, I've a question in my mind....Is it possible if once time in the future of the world will have one centralized artificial intelligence ( i called it) that can fully control all the network ( all the brain)  using internet or other form of electronic device ( like immersed nano chip or internet network program which can penetrate and fully take control our mind, etc).

Nowadays the possibility of one mandatory artificial intelligence which can control the human brain increasing since the nano technology discovered. The application of nano technology influence in neuro science, biotechnology, information technology significantly. 

Imagining it, I can say my negative perception is more dominate my mind than positive perception...I knew it was not fair .... this happened to me because since I was young I have raised in Christianity Doctrine that said in the end of days there will appear deceivers that will use the immersed chip in human body to control us....

Later I decided not to use that doctrine again since I grew up in maturity and my reading experience.. so I prefered to compare this matter wisely...when I did it, I got one sentence to conclude my thought about it :

In a dynamic and uncertainty thing, there will always be a chance that a new thing can be exploited to have the positive impact or negative impact. And we are human become the decision maker to it.

So back to my spontaneous reaction to this matter, I must observe this matter with all the possibilities impact to us as a human being. And I got whatever the new thing arise before us, it is our decision as a human being to bring it to the positive thing for human kind or vice versa....

And I decide to believe that both of neuro science or information and communication technology progress/ improvement will bring the positive impact for humand kind....

Finally I decide not to fear about the negative impact from the possibbility emergence of centralized artificial inteligence that can control our mind.

15 Styles of Distorted Thinking

---

• Filtering: You take the negative details and magnify them while filtering out all positive aspects of a situation.
• Polarized Thinking: Things are black or white, good or bad. You have to be perfect or you're a failure. There is no middle ground.
• Overgeneralization: You come to a general conclusion based on a single incident or piece of evidence. If something bad happens once you expect it to happen over and over again.
• Mind Reading:  Without their saying so, you know what people are feeling and why they act the way they do. In particular, you are able to divine how people are feeling toward you.
• Castastrophizing: You expect disaster. you notice or hear about a problem and start "what if's". What if tragedy strikes? What if it happens to you?"
• Personalization: Thinking that everything people do or say is some kind of reaction to you. You also compare yourself to others, trying to determine who's smarter, better looking, etc.

Taking Criticism Effectively

“Criticism may not be agreeable, but it is necessary.
It fulfills the same function as pain in the human body.
It calls attention to an unhealthy state of things.”
~ Winston Churchill

Criticism is crucial for personal improvement. It’s the most direct way to find out what you should improve on. However, accepting criticism can be emotionally challenging. Afterall, we’re only human, who wants to hear bad stuff about ourselves?

It’s hard to not take it personally. Our instinctive reaction is to become defensive and we shut out potentially helpful and life-enhancing tips. By doing this, we miss out on what could supercharge our improvement.

So how can you take criticism without getting self-conscious and defensive?

Answer: An effective way to accept criticism is to externalize it.

When you externalize criticism, you escape the defensiveness trap. You stop being self-conscious and take criticism objectively, which lets you reap the benefits of the helpful tips that the criticism contains.

Dysfunctional Math

A defining characteristic of our age is the unusual math. Today's unprecedented numbers and figures are matched with graphs increasingly exponential in nature--especially the hyper-exponential, purely vertical Profusion Curve. What makes this disconcerting is that plotting the math into the future leads to dysfunction in nearly all directions. Simply stated, the math no longer works in a variety of critical settings.

This math problem arises inevitably from the process of progress. Progress always gives us more and more of everything faster and faster. In the past, when more is what we needed, it was glorious to receive such profusion almost automatically. Now, however, progress is mathematically uncontrollable and volatile. Modern progress has a math problem, and in many ways it will dominate our future. When history decided to explode, it chose to do so on our generational shift.

Following is a representative list to help illustrate this profound mathematical growth. It's important to realize that this is but a partial list and that any single number is not the problem. It's only when all the dots are connected through integration that the true picture of dysfunction comes into view.

The Virtue Behind The Word

 The fish trap exists because of the fish. Once you've gotten the fish you can forget the trap. The rabbit snare exists because of the rabbit. Once you've gotten the rabbit, you can forget the snare. Words exist because of meaning. Once you've gotten the meaning, you can forget the words. Where can I find a man who has forgotten words so I can talk with him?  ~Chuang Tzu

First of all, by this quote, as though I am reminded that sometimes we should capture the meanings behind the words. Eventhough in fact we doesn't always get it but for the positive thing it can be a useful to catch quickly the meaning that be contained in our friend's words...Yes, I should learn it more and more...

Second thing, It is reminded me also to learn the words seen incisive and rude but the truly meaning in it are to reminded, awaken and resuscitate us from something wrong....sooo once again we have to wise to deal with this kind of words.....reserve it first...serach the meaning....if it is to awaken us...transform it for our virtue...and otherwise to blame us with no reason....reject it as soon as possible.....continue your way to live the life...That is..... 

Complete Solutions: Classic Exercises On Lateral Thinking

1. There is a man who lives on the top floor of a very tall building. Everyday he gets the elevator down to the ground floor to leave the building to go to work. Upon returning from work though, he can only travel half way up in the lift and has to walk the rest of the way unless it's raining! Why?

This is probably the best known and most celebrated of all lateral thinking puzzles. It is a true classic. Although there are many possible solutions which fit the initial conditions, only the canonical answer is truly satisfying.

2. A man and his son are in a car accident. The father dies on the scene, but the child is rushed to the hospital. When he arrives the surgeon says, "I can't operate on this boy, he is my son!" How can this be?

3. A man is wearing black. Black shoes, socks, trousers, coat, gloves and ski mask. He is walking down a back street with all the street lamps off. A black car is coming towards him with its light off but somehow manages to stop in time. How did the driver see the man?

4. One day Kerry celebrated her birthday. Two days later her older twin brother, Terry, celebrated his birthday. How?

5.. Why is it better to have round manhole covers than square ones? This is logical rather than lateral, but it is a good puzzle that can be solved by lateral thinking techniques. It is supposedly used by a very well-known software company as an interview question for prospective employees.

Once Again About Judgement - A Deep Thought

Judgement means a stale state of mind. And mind always wants judgement,because to be in a process is always hazardous and uncomfortable.

This story happened in the days of Lao Tzu in China, and Lao Tzu loved it very much:

There was an old man in a village, very poor, but even kings were jealous of him because he had a beautiful white horse. Kings offered fabulous prizes for the horse, but the man would say, "This horse is not a horse to me, he is a person. And how can you sell a person, a friend?" The man was poor, but he never sold the horse.

One morning he found that the horse was not in the stable. The whole village gathered and said, "You foolish old man! We knew that someday the horse would be stolen. It would have been better to sell it. What a misfortune!"

The old man said, "Don't go so far as to say that. Simply say that the horse is not in the stable. This is the fact; everything else is judgement. Whether it is a misfortune or a blessing I don't know, because this is just a fragment. Who knows what is going to follow it?"

Leadership in Facing Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity and Ambiguity

An organization, especially with a multinational scope, faces a major structural reorganization that contains significant functional changes and leadership challenges.  Facing the Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity (VUCA) are four leaders responsible for implementing a significant part of the organizational change without losing strategic momentum.

Finding VUCA Prime

Like most organizations, the act of bringing in a high profile external consulting firm eight months ago signaled to every executive in the business unit that significant change was possible.  Without question, they each had their own story of what that would or should entail.  Seated around the table were four corporate leaders who knew the nature and extent of the impending reorganization before it was announced.  Their task was to make it happen without losing focus, momentum, and direction – to change horses at a full gallop over rough terrain without falling off.

The conversation was at first intense, but not adversarial.  Dave, my client, led his colleagues in a lively dialogue that confirmed the key volatilities, uncertainties, complexities, and ambiguities – VUCA – that we had previously discussed.  Increasing destabilization in any one of the four VUCA elements could have a negative snowball effect, yet stability was neither possible nor helpful.

13 Explosive and Negative Characteristics of Team Members

Many teams and teamwork efforts fail due to the personal character of the members of the organization.  This does not have to take place.  If those leading a team of people could see diversity and personal differences as a positive resource to develop this could create a powerful resource of human talent.  There are certain personal behaviors that can destroy teamwork. It would help any leader to identify these personality traits. Negative characteristic can be handled and directed toward a positive creation of a team.  Getting to know these traits is the starting point.

1. Tendency to Criticize
It was once said, “A critic is a legless man who teaches running.”  Criticism can be a productive tool, however, those who have a tendency to criticize often are not productive team members. 

2. Unpredictable Mood Swings
This type of personality trait is very frustrating for any team leader.  It is hard to navigate any ship when you do not know which way the wind is going to blow.

Everything in Its Time

 This song reminds me to the wonder of 'The Grand Design' in His Sovereignty....

Sometimes I wonder what lies ahead
How long till my hunger is fed
They say it's hard to make it in this part of town
So many people on this merry-go-round

Decision By Objectives - How to Convinces Others That You Are Right

In this contemplation associated with a management process, I can say I have a lack of experience in executing decision especially  in Crucial Decision Area. I often feel there is something wrong or something not fit yet when I have to decided. As a result I usually feel comfortable to make many scenario with all of its detail but when I face off the compulsion to take a decision/judgment, I have an adversity in it. So I think it is my weakness that to be improved.

At first I have a slightly confused with the starting point to do it. I've known many popular decision making techniques tool both of quantitative and qualitative methods in management. But I think I need something more praticed related with it.

He Is Lord - Hillsong

                                

This song is really inspired ....!!!

Stop Looking Beyond My Craetor

I just came across this quotable quote while reading today.

You can't go on 'seeing through' things forever. The whole point of seeing through something is to see something through it... If you see through everything, then everything is transparent. But a wholly transparent world is an invisible world. To 'see through' all things is the same as not to see.

It made a whole lot of sense to me. Some people try to look beyond an issue, and go too far only to find nothing of use or benefit to its existence. Some people seek to change something, but in fact, what he seeks to change is nothing. This nothing-ness can't be changed, and the scary part is, this dis-illusion sometimes can't be corrected either.

So a balance between the simple and the abstract is often needed.

With age, abstraction and complexity often attracts man, but is as often not needed. Simple things done simply can yield as good a result and if not better and in a shorter time. I need to remember that. Perfection sometimes can be so far away that the process of attaining it becomes so confusingly imperfect. Maybe its not just age... its a whole load of pride and a foggy experience of reality...

Some people look through creation and see God... Many try to look beyond God and find theory... Maybe if they looked deeper... they'd find emotion and raw unbelief...

I choose to stop looking beyond my Creator... I don't see how I could ever understand as much as what the Creator of the universe does.

My Confession About Happiness

"Happiness is as a butterfly which, when pursued is always beyond our grasp, but which if you will sit down quietly, may alight upon you."

In the end of my ordianry day, I've something crossed in my mind said: 'Should our happiness is absolutely determined by our plan for our own ultimate goal, our success?' And my first response to it "NO"..."But why?"...I've wondered.

I am sure some of you might not agree with me... but I am not saying that you should not plan for your future to be successful or to become wealthy, what I am trying to say is that even though you are successful or wealthy (now or in the future), there is no guarantee that you will be happy!

Get The Early: Seeing The Future to Compete In The Present

FREE EXCERPT: Get There Early: Seeing the Future to Compete in the Present

It’s a guidebook for what’s going to be, for the future that is really not optional — the VUCA world of Volatility, Uncertainty, Complexity, and Ambiguity. Because it will give you an entirely new angle on how to approach your job as a business leader in this VUCA world. Bob Johansen has created a book that is exceptional in its originality and clarity of expression as well as in its effective blending of theory and practical examples.

But you may well ask: “Can I really do the things described in this book and make a difference in my business?” From personal experience, It can again say resoundingly, YES. We all need a better way to engage with the dilemmas that are increasingly apparent all around us. This book provides that better way.

 

An excerpt from

Get There Early:

Sensing the Future to Compete in the Present

by Bob Johansen

Published by Berrett-Koehler Publishers

Eternity by Yuriko Nakamura

One of my favorite contemplative piano play to accompany my serenity time....hopedully you can enjoy it too...!!

Why Our Brains Do Not Intuitively Grasp Probabilities

Have you ever gone to the phone to call a friend only to have your friend ring you first? What are the odds of that? Not high, to be sure, but the sum of all probabilities equals one. Given enough opportunities, outlier anomalies—even seeming miracles—will occasionally happen.

Let us define a miracle as an event with million-to-one odds of occurring (intuitively, that seems rare enough to earn the moniker). Let us also assign a number of one bit per second to the data that flow into our senses as we go about our day and assume that we are awake for 12 hours a day. We get 43,200 bits of data a day, or 1.296 million a month. Even assuming that 99.999 percent of these bits are totally meaningless (and so we filter them out or forget them entirely), that still leaves 1.3 “miracles” a month, or 15.5 miracles a year.

Thanks to our confirmation bias, in which we look for and find confirmatory evidence for what we already believe and ignore or discount contradictory evidence, we will remember only those few astonishing coincidences and forget the vast sea of meaningless data.

We can employ a similar back-of-the-envelope calculation to explain death premonition dreams. The average person has about five dreams a night, or 1,825 dreams a year. If we remember only a tenth of our dreams, then we recall 182.5 dreams a year. There are 300 million Americans, who thus produce 54.7 billion remembered dreams a year. Sociologists tell us that each of us knows about 150 people fairly well, thus producing a social-network grid of 45 billion personal relationship connections. With an annual death rate of 2.4 million Americans, it is inevitable that some of those 54.7 billion remembered dreams will be about some of these 2.4 million deaths among the 300 million Americans and their 45 billion relationship connections. In fact, it would be a miracle if some death premonition dreams did not happen to come true!

Debt Elimination: Managing It Through Turbulent Times

 

Debt is a tool that must be smartly managed. Getting on top of it is the single most important financial step you can take. Here's how to do it.

The Business Cycle

To explore the fundamentals behind the historic, destructive forces wreaking havoc upon individuals, businesses and governments alike, one must understand the term business cycle. The business cycle is a characterization of the direction of economic activity within a broader economy. The five stages are as follows: expansion, peak, recession, trough, and recovery. According to Investopedia.com, the average post-World War II expansion has lasted 50 months, while the average contraction has been just eleven months.

During expansions, individuals, governments and businesses typically finance growth through the acquisition of significant amounts of additional debt. During contractions, the same parties attempt to reduce debt in order to mitigate uncertain or declining revenues. Needless to say, the former is far easier to accomplish than the later.

Finally Avatar II's Trailer has been released, can't wait this show on cineplex...

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model

How you go about making a decision can involve as many choices as the decision itself. Sometimes you have to take charge and decide what to do on your own. Other times its better to make a decision using group consensus. How do you decide which approach to use?

Making good decisions is one of the main leadership tasks. Part of doing this is determining the most efficient and effective means of reaching the decision.

You don't want to make autocratic decisions when team acceptance is crucial for a successful outcome. Nor do you want be involving your team in every decision you make, because that is an ineffective use of time and resources. What this means is you have to adapt your leadership style to the situation and decision you are facing. Autocratic styles work some of the time, highly participative styles work at other times, and various combinations of the two work best in the times in between.

The Vroom-Yetton-Jago Decision Model provides a useful framework for identifying the best leadership style to adopt for the situation you're in.

Note:
This model was originally described by Victor Vroom and Philip Yetton in their 1973 book titled Leadership and Decision Making. Later in 1988, Vroom and Arthur Jago, replaced the decision tree system of the original model with an expert system based on mathematics. Hence you will see the model called Vroom-Yetton, Vroom-Jago, and Vroom-Yetton-Jago. The model here is based on the Vroom-Jago version of the model.

The Face of Contradiction

" Sebuah piano umumnya memiliki dua warna tuts, satu berwarna putih dan satu lagi berwarna hitam. Sebuah komposisi lagu bisa dimainkan hanya dengan salah satu warna tus tersebut, namun kebanyakan komposisi yang indah memainkan keduanya sehingga terciptalah lantunan nada yang harmonis."

 "Kontradiksi"....sebuah istilah yang sangat dijauhi oleh para saintis sejak dahulu kala. Sebuah teori dikatakan elegan, indah, dan bagus adalah teori yang sama sekali tidak memiliki kontradiksi di dalamnya....mulai dari jamannya Anaxigoras sampai ke jamannya Imanuel Kant, dari Archimedes sampai ke Karl Marx....sepanjang era perkembangan metode ilmiah dalam konstruksi sebuah teori, sangat dihindari yang namanya "Kontradiksi".

Sederhananya kontradiksi adalah ketidakkonsistenan dari sebuah teori/postulat. Menurut wikipedia hukum kontradiksi adalah:

"Hukum kontradiksi atau principium contradictionis (Bahasa Inggris: law of contradiction) adalah aturan yang menyatakan bahwa tidak mungkin sesuatu itu pada waktu yang sama adalah sesuatu itu dan bukan sesuatu itu. Maksudnya: mustahil sesuatu itu adalah hal satu dan bertentangan pada waktu yang bersamaan."

Sang Pianis dan Sang Anak Kecil

Kisah ini terjadi di Rusia. Seorang ayah yang memiliki putra yang berusia kurang lebih 5 tahun, memasukkan putranya tersebut ke sekolah musik untuk belajar piano. Ia rindu melihat anaknya kelak menjadi seorang pianis yang terkenal.

Selang beberapa waktu kemudian, di kota tersebut datang seorang pianis yang sangat terkenal. Karena ketenarannya, dalam waktu singkat tiket konser telah terjual habis. Sang ayah membeli 2 buah tiket pertunjukan, untuk dirinya dan anaknya.

Pada hari pertunjukan, satu jam sebelum konser dimulai, kursi telah terisi penuh. Sang ayah duduk dan putranya tepat berada di sampingnya. Seperti layaknya seorang anak kecil, anak ini pun tidak betah duduk diam terlalu lama, tanpa sepengetahuan ayahnya, ia menyelinap pergi.

Ketika lampu gedung mulai diredupkan, sang ayah terkejut menyadari bahwa putranya tidak ada di sampingnya. Ia lebih terkejut lagi ketika melihat anaknya berada dekat panggung pertunjukan, dan sedang berjalan menghampiri piano yang akan dimainkan pianis tersebut.

Best Photo 2010 - Photoradar

Decision Making Process In Solving A Problem

 1. What is Decision Making?

Decision-making is an essential aspect of modern management. It is a primary function of management. A manager's major job is sound/rational decision-making. He takes hundreds of decisions consciously and subconsciously. Decision-making is the key part of manager's activities. Decisions are important as they determine both managerial and organizational actions. A decision may be defined as "a course of action which is consciously chosen from among a set of alternatives to achieve a desired result." It represents a well-balanced judgment and a commitment to action.

It is rightly said that the first important function of management is to take decisions on problems and situations. Decision-making pervades all managerial actions. It is a continuous process. Decision-making is an indispensable component of the management process itself.

Means and ends are linked together through decision-making. To decide means to come to some definite conclusion for follow-up action. Decision is a choice from among a set of alternatives. The word 'decision' is derived from the Latin words de ciso which means 'a cutting away or a cutting off or in a practical sense' to come to a conclusion. Decisions are made to achieve goals through suitable follow-up actions. Decision-making is a process by which a decision (course of action) is taken. Decision-making lies embedded in the process of management.

Positive Mindset dalam Empat Level Gelombang Otak

Dalam tulisan mengenai Law of Attaction (Hukum Tarik Menarik) — yang bisa Anda baca disini dan disini — kita telah membahas mengenai betapa sesungguhnya pola pikir dan rajutan imajinasi kita memiliki pengaruh yang signifikan terhadap sejarah masa depan hidup kita.

Demikianlah, jika kita selalu mampu menganyam pola pikir yang guyub dengan energi positif – dengan energi tentang keyakinan-diri, dengan pancaran optimisme yang kokoh, dan dengan sikap hidup yang selalu penuh rasa sukur – maka ada peluang besar bahwa hidup sejati kita akan benar-benar dilimpahi oleh sederet narasi tentang keberhasilan.

Myers Briggs Personality Indicator Highlight

Myers Briggs Personality Traits

Knowing Your Parenting Perosnality

Recognizing What Motivates You
Let's begin with nine simple questions. There are no right or wrong responses to this well-tried methodology for identifying the foundation of your personality, your dominant motivational mode. Once you understand what motivates you, you'll be prepared to discover whether you tend to be a Helper, Organizer, Dreamer, Observer, Questioner, Entertainer, Protector, Peacekeeper, or Moralizer. Following each question are three statements. Choose the one that fits you most closely.

1. When you reflect on your own approach to parenting, which of the following statements best describes your style?

a. My parenting style has to do with interaction and energy, with connecting to my children. I ask myself, am I getting through on an emotional level? I try to feel where they are coming from. Do they understand where I'm coming from? How do they see me? It's important that we connect in a meaningful way.

b. My parenting style is intuitive; I have a gut sense about what's right and wrong, fair and unfair. I'm ambivalent about conflict, but when I have something to say, I have a great need to say it and to be heeded. I don't like being encumbered by extraneous demands or the social expectations of others.

c. My parenting style is intellectual, no question. I'm interested in how children think, process information, and work with ideas. I live in my head-conceptualizing, fantasizing, thinking things, researching and proving--that's what's important to me. "Rationality" is a big word with me.

The "Red Team" Forging A Well-Conceive Contingency Plan

Independent peer review by recognized experts is crucial to the production of any quality product, whether a professional journal or war plan. Colonel Malone and Major Schaupp discuss evolving efforts to use “Red Teams” to incorporate this kind of review into the crisis-action planning process. Employing such teams at critical phases during both the planning itself and the mission rehearsal of completed plans will yield more robust and vetted war plans.

Throughout the lengthy planning effort for Operation Allied Force in 1998–99, allied leaders and planners widely adhered to a significant assumption. When the order arrived to execute the operation- on the very eve of hostilities- that assumption continued to prevail.

Framework dalam Cost/Benefit Analysis

Dalam investasi pastilah kita semua sudah menyadari bahwa manfaat (benefit) yang kita terima harus lebih besar dibandingkan semua pengeluaran (cost) yang dikeluarkan, namun tidak semua tahu atau mengerti bagaimana analisis untuk hal tersebut dilakukan. Berikut langkah-langkah dalam melakukan analisis cost-benefit:

1. Pahami status quo dari cost/ biaya: Ketahui apakah benefit yang akan diterima lebih besar dibandingkan opportunity cost -nya (biaya atas kesempatan yang hilang karena dana kita terikat dalam investasi tersebut)  . Hal ini dilakukan untuk mengetahui apakah benefit dari investasi ini layak atau tidak, jangan sampai terjadi kita investasi namun benefit yang kita dari investasi tersebut lebih kecil dibandingkan jika kita menabung/ deposito uang kita di bank (suku bunga bank Indonesia seringjkali dijadikan acuan sebagai tolok ukur persentase minimal return / benefit dari investasi kita).

A Leeson From A Child Story: A Great Passion Bring A Great Life

Murni dan segar adalah bunga-bunga yang berembun;

Jernih dan nyaring adalah kicauan burung-burung.

Awan berarak tenang, air laut kebiru-biriuan.

Siapakah penulis Kitab Sejati Tanpa Aksara?

Menjulang tinggi adalah pegunungan;

Hijau adalah pepohonan, dalam adalah lembah-lembah.

Angin berembus lembut, rembulan pun cerah.

Diam-diam kubaca Kitab Sejati Tanpa Aksara

[Zenkei Shibayama]-Kitab Sejati Tanpa Aksara

Kemarin malam, dalam perjalanan pulang dari sebuah supermarket, istri saya menceritakan sebuah kisah nyata yang dia baca dari link yang dikirimkan teman kami dari sebuah grup diskusi. Kisah itu bercerita tentang kejadian nyata yang dialami oleh seorang anak SD yang tinggal bersama neneknya di sebuah rumah yang beralaskan tanah dan tikar, berdinding hanya selutut orang dewasa di bawah sebuah jembatan ( bisa dibilang dalam perspektif  standard hidup perkotaan saat ini itu bukan sebuah rumah). Yang menjadi inti kisah tersebut adalah bagaimana kebesaran hati yang maha luas seperti sebuah samudera raya yang entah bagaimana caranya bisa ada dalam sebuah bejana tanah liat yang dihembus dengan sebuah hembusan menjadi sesosok yang namanya anak kecil dalam menghadapi berbagai kegetiran hidup di jaman ini. Kisah itu selengkapnya dapat dibaca di http://muda.kompasiana.com/2011/06/18/senyuman-alex/

Sejarah Permainan Monopoli

Tentunya anda pernah memainkan permainan MONOPOLY tersebut sewaktu kecil bahkan sekarang pun masi memainkannya. Permainan tersebut amat di kenal dan digemari bahkan para ahli financial amat menyarankan anda untuk memainkan permainan tersebut. Bahkan R.Kiyosaki (Cashflow) dan Donald Trump (Trump the game) ikut2an mematenkan permainan seperti itu hanya saja dengan kelas yang lebih berbeda..

Yah, permainan monopoly adalah permainan yang sudah mendunia, tidak saja anak2 kecil yang pantas memainkannya, para remaja dan anak dewasa juga larut dalam permainan tersebut.. Perputaran uang di dunia nyata di terapkan didalam permainan ini. Para pemain berlomba-lomba mengumpulkan kekayaan melalui penyewaan dan pertukaran properti dalam sistem ekonomi yang disederhanakan..


Setiap pemain melemparkan dadu secara bergiliran untuk memindahkan bidaknya, dan apabila ia mendarat di petak yang belum dimiliki oleh pemain lain, ia dapat membeli petak itu sesuai harga yang tertera. Bila petak itu sudah dibeli pemain lain, ia harus membayar pemain itu uang sewa yang jumlahnya juga sudah ditetapkan. Dan jika pemain sudah mencapai kembali di petak dimana permainan di mulai, maka pemain menerima Uang dari Bank dengan jumlah yang di sepakati..

Framework, Definisi, Sejarah, dan Karakteristik Reksadana

Reksadana adalah wadah dan pola pengelolaan dana / modal bagi sekumpulan investor untuk berinvestasi dalam instrumen – instrumen investasi yang tersedia dipasar dengan cara membeli unit penyertaan reksadana. Dana ini kemudian dikelola oleh manajer investasi (MI)

Ke dalam portofolio investasi, baik berupa saham, obligasi, pasar uang, ataupun efek / sekuriti lainnya. Menurut undang – undang pasar modal no. 8 tahun 1995 pasal 1 ayat 27: reksadana adalah wadah yang dipergunakan untuk menghimpun dalam portofolio efek oleh manajer investasi. Dari kedua definisi diatas, terdapat 3 unsur penting dalam pengertiaan reksadana yaitu:

1. Adanya kumpulan dana masyarakat, baik individu maupun institusi

2. Investasi bersama dalam bentuk suatu portofolio efek yang telah terdiversifikasi

3. Manajer investasi dipercaya sebagai pengelola dana milik masyarakat investor

Pada reksadana manajemen investasi mengelola dana – dana yang ditempatkannya pada saat surat berharga dan merealisasikan keuntungan ataupun kerugian dan menerima dividen atau bunga yang dibukukannya ke dalam “Nilai Aktiva Bersih” (NAB) reksadana tersebut.

Kekayaan reksadana yang dikelola oleh manajer investasi tersebut wajib untuk disimpan pada bank kustodian inilah yang akan bertindak sebagai tempat penitipan kolektif dan administrator.

WACC Mapping (Wall Street Training)

WACC Mapping

Zhang Da's Life Story

Untuk siapapun yang mendapat perlakuan kurang menyenangkan dari ortu kuncinya satu memaafkan , sehingga kedamaian ada pada hidup kita , jaman dulu sdh biasa ortu bertindak seperti itu , banyak faktor, salah satunya kemiskinan dan pendidikan yg rendah. Moga 2 tulisan dibawah ini membawa kita semua , terutama yg mengalami hal 2 buruk, setelah membaca e-mail ini ada damai dalam hidup kita, Amin.

Di Propinsi Zhejiang China, ada seorang anak laki-laki yang luar biasa, sebut saja namanya Zhang Da. Perhatiannya yang besar kepada Papanya, hidupnya yang pantang menyerah dan mau bekerja keras, serta tindakan dan perkataannya yang menyentuh hati membuat Zhang Da, anak lelaki yang masih berumur 10 tahun ketika memulai semua itu, pantas disebut anak yang luar biasa. Saking jarangnya seorang anak yang berbuat demikian, sehingga ketika Pemerintah China mendengar dan menyelidiki apa yang Zhang Da perbuat maka merekapun memutuskan untuk menganugerahi penghargaan Negara yang Tinggi kepadanya. Zhang Da adalah salah satu dari sepuluh orang yang dinyatakan telah melakukan perbuatan yang luar biasa dari antara 1,4 milyar penduduk China. Tepatnya 27 Januari 2006 Pemerintah China, di Propinsi Jiangxu, kota Nanjing, serta disiarkan secara Nasional keseluruh pelosok negeri, memberikan penghargaan kepada 10 (sepuluh) orang yang luar biasa, salah satunya adalah Zhang Da.

Suatu Saat Ketika Chatting DenganNya

Pernah chatting? atau jangan2 sering chatting? Nah, pernahkah pemirsa chatting dengan Tuhan? berikut kutipan hasil chatting dengan Tuhan, yang saya dapatkan dari salah satu teman saya yang mengirimkan artikel inspirasi ini pada saya :
BUZZ
BUZZ..
TUHAN : Kamu memanggilKu ?
AKU: Memanggilmu? Tidak.. Ini siapa ya?
TUHAN : Ini TUHAN. Aku mendengar doamu. Jadi Aku ingin berbincang-
bincang denganmu.
AKU: Ya, saya memang sering berdoa, hanya agar saya merasa lebih
baik. Tapi sekarang saya sedang sibuk, sangat sibuk.
TUHAN : Sedang sibuk apa? Semut juga sibuk.

The Story of Chaos Theory

Teori Chaos adalah teori yang diterapkan dalam banyak disiplin ilmu: matematika, programming, mikrobiologi, biologi, ilmu komputer, ekonomi, teknik, keuangan, filsafat, fisika, politik, dinamika populasi, psikologi, robotika, dan meteorologi. Teori Chaos saat ini bahkan juga diterapkan pada studi kedokteran epilepsi, khususnya pada prediksi kekejangan yang terlihat acak dengan mengamati kondisi awal.

Reksadana Terbaik Versi Bisnis Indonesia Intelligence Unit

Sedikitnya 10 produk reksa dana dan unit linked meraih peringkat kinerja teratas berdasarkan kategori efisiensi teknis, risiko dan tingkat pengembalian. Saat ini ada total 700 reksa dana dan 282 unit linked yang diterbitkan dan terdaftar di Indonesia.

Hasil penelitian Bisnis Indonesia Intelligence Unit (BIIU), menunjukkan ke-10 produk reksa dana dan unit linked tersebut muncul dari lima katagori. Masing-masing adalah katagori pendapatan tetap, saham, campuran, pasar uang, dan terproteksi.

Perbandingan Unit Link VS Reksadana & Asuransi

Mungkin diantara kita ada yang pernah diperhdapkan dengan pilihan untuk ambil Unit Link saja atau ambil Reksadana dan Asuransi (Term Life) secara terpisah. Berikut sedikit ilustrasi sederhana yang saya dapatkan dari Blog Priyadi Iman Nurcahyo yang mungkin bisa memberikan sedikit gambaran untuk perhitungannya. 

Hitung-hitung Asuransi Unit Link dan Terpisah 

Tabloid Kontan Edisi Khusus pernah membahas asuransi unit link. Salah satu artikelnya membahas perbandingan asuransi unit link dengan mengambil reksadana dan asuransi term life secara terpisah. Kontan membuat ilustrasi dengan asumsi-asumsi sebagai berikut:

• Produk asuransi jiwa + kecelakaan, nasabah diilustrasikan meninggal dunia pada tahun keenam.
• Uang pertanggungan asuransi jiwa sebesar 50 juta dan bonus 20 juta.
• Besar setoran premi per tahun Rp 10 juta
• Instrumen investasi pendapatan tetap dengan asumsi keuntungan 14% per tahun.

Menurut perhitungan Kontan, dengan unit link uang pertanggungan yang akan dibayarkan adalah sebesar Rp 105.040.000. Sedangkan jika mengambil terpisah, uang pertanggungan yang akan dibayarkan sebesar Rp 122,1 juta.

Once Again About Tools for Thinking

Forget what worked five years ago, last year, or even what is working today. Concentrate on what will work next. Don't just forget your ten core beliefs but vigorously attack them. Forget hesitation - try anything, rather than navel gazing looking for what will work. "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take" (Gretzky, cited in Peters) Forget failure. By embracing failure, we are not scared by the risk of failure. Forget Blockbuster products and services - the blockbusters are only recognisable after the fact - Tom Peters

I'll describe a symposium over at Edge.org on what scientific concepts everyone’s cognitive toolbox should hold. After a while I didn't write anything in this blog, now I try to share what I get from many article tracking related to thinking approach. Surely there are a huge approach for us to explore the human thinking approach, but for this time I feel the most enlightening one has been written by David Brooks-A New York Times Collumnist. He said that there were many superb entries in that symposium, and he only had space to highlight a few, so here is his sparkle opus.

THE FOURTH QUADRANT: A MAP OF THE LIMITS OF STATISTICS

Statistical and applied probabilistic knowledge is the core of knowledge; statistics is what tells you if something is true, false, or merely anecdotal; it is the "logic of science"; it is the instrument of risk-taking; it is the applied tools of epistemology; you can't be a modern intellectual and not think probabilistically—but... let's not be suckers. The problem is much more complicated than it seems to the casual, mechanistic user who picked it up in graduate school. Statistics can fool you. In fact it is fooling your government right now. It can even bankrupt the system (let's face it: use of probabilistic methods for the estimation of risks did just blow up the banking system).

The current subprime crisis has been doing wonders for the reception of any ideas about probability-driven claims in science, particularly in social science, economics, and "econometrics" (quantitative economics).  Clearly, with current International Monetary Fund estimates of the costs of the 2007-2008 subprime crisis,  the banking system seems to have lost more on risk taking (from the failures of quantitative risk management) than every penny banks ever earned taking risks. But it was easy to see from the past that the pilot did not have the qualifications to fly the plane and was using the wrong navigation tools: The same happened in 1983 with money center banks losing cumulatively every penny ever made, and in 1991-1992 when the Savings and Loans industry became history.

Disconnected - Andrew Leigh (An Excerpt)

Organisational membership is down. We are less likely to attend church. Political parties and unions are bleeding members. Sporting participation and cultural attendance are down.

Volunteering is likely below its post-war peak, though it did record a rise in the late 1990s.

We have fewer friends and are less connected with our neighbours than in the mid-80s. Other measures have flatlined, but few have risen.

So what explains the trends in social capital? First, let’s exonerate one defendant. The character variously known as “economic reform”, “economic liberalism” or “economic rationalism” frequently has been blamed for eroding social capital.

For example, Australian sociologist Eva Cox takes the view that free markets undermine trust and reciprocity. She writes that “the idea of the social is losing ground to the concepts of competition, and the money markets are replacing governments. The social aspects of humanity have somehow disappeared and we are left with a more atomised image of individuals competing in an endless process of distrust.”

Game Trailer: I Am Alive

Game ini sejal 2 tahun lalu trailernya sudah muncul, tapi sampai sekarang belum release juga official gamenya....^^;

Transformers 3: Dark of The Moon - Release Date: 01st July 2011

Sherlock Holmes : A Game of Shadows - Release Date: 16th December 2011

X-Men : First Class - Release Date: 3rd June 2011

The Adventures Of Tintin: The Secret Of The Unicorn - Released : December 2011

The Thing - Release Date: 29th April 2011

Masalah Setan Maxwell: Tantangan Matematis

Setan Maxwell adalah konsep yang banyak dikritisi oleh filsuf sains. Berikut akan digambarkan bagaimana masalah seputar setan Maxwell ini. Di awali dengan Popper, para filsuf memeriksa literatur mengenai setan Maxwell menjadi terkejut bahkan ketakutan karenanya.

---

 Tahun 1866, J.C. Maxwell menduga kalau ia telah menemukan setan Maxwell walau tidak dalam deskripsi demikian. Ia percaya kalau suhu sebuah gas dalam gravitasi akan bervariasi berkebalikan dengan ketinggian kolom. Dari ini ia melihat kalau menjadi mungkin mendapatkan energi dari gas yang mendingin, pelanggaran nyata pernyataan hukum kedua termodinamika Thompson.

What is Enterprise Value? And How Should We Compute It?

Should we deduct cash / near cash from sum of equity and debt values to compute enterprise value? Should we add minority interests to market capitalization and debt value before deducting cash to arrive at enterprise value? These are some of the questions one often comes across.

Enterprise is defined as an organization created with a commercial intent and thus should be synonymous with a business firm. Enterprise value, then, should be synonymous with firm value. Firm value is the present value of the claims of all stake-holders against a firm. In a simple case where a firm is financed with only debt and equity, firm value is the value of debt and value of equity. If the firm has no non-operating assets, firm value can be valued by estimating future free cash flows and discounting those cash flows with an appropriate rate of return (which may vary from year to year) that embodies the returns required by creditors and shareholders of the firm. Since this is essentially the value of operations of the firm, if there is any non-operating assets, the value of such non-operating assets should be added to arrive at the firm value or enterprise value. (Copeland, Koller and Murrin have used enterprise value in this sense in their book)

Ketika Tuhan Bilang Tidak

Ketika aku meminta, " Tuhan.. ambillah kesombongan dariku."
Dan Tuhan bilang, "Tidak",
Tuhan bilang, "bukan Aku yang mengambil tapi kau yang harus menyerahkannya. "

Ketika aku meminta, " Tuhan.. sempurnakanlah kekurangan tubuhku."
Dan Tuhan bilang, "Tidak",
Tuhan berkata, "Jiwa dan roh mu telah utuh, tubuhmu hanya sementara yang akan binasa.
Perhiasan batiniahmu yang terdiri dari keberadaan diri sejati, yaitu roh yang lemah lembut dan tenteram, itulah yang berharga di mata-Ku."

PASSION: Ungapping Performance and Potential -A Contemplation

Hari Minggu pagi, bagi sebagian dari kita, saat dimana kita pergi ke Gereja. Minggu ini ada suatu hal yang saya dapatkan. PASSION! Sewaktu kam sekeluarga berjalan menuju pelataran parkir sehabis ibadah, saya melihat sepasang muda-mudi dengan kisaran umur 18-20 tahun berjalan kaki dengan penuh semangat menuju tempat ibadah, entah kenapa saat melihat hal tersebut ada sesuatu yang menggelitik saya...Kemudian sesaat setelah sampai dikediaman kami, saya kembali tergelitik dengan apa yang saya lihat tadi dan saya teringat saat-saat pertama kali saya mulai pergi ke tempat ibadah kurang lebih 15 tahun lalu, di waktu-waktu itu saya mengalami apa yang diistilahkan oleh sepasang muda-mudi adalah cinta pertama untuk pergi ke tempat ibadah, saat itu hujan sederas apa pun, saat itu tubuh secapai apa pun, singkatnya dalam keadaan apa pun saya sangat menanti-nantikan untuk pergi ke tempat ibdadah tersebut untuk melakukan ibadah bersama yang lainnya dan setiap kali pula saat ibadah saya mendapatkan sesuatu yang baru dan luar biasa. Saya teringat bagaimana dalam keadaan kuyup sekali pun atau tanpa kursi sekali pun sepanjang ibadah, saya tetap bisa sangat menikmati waktu-waktu itu. Saat mengenang masa-masa itu muncullah satu kata dalam benak saya, yaitu PASSION